Outlook for 2020
Interim Report for 1 January – 31 March 2020 (published 30 April 2020)
Market outlook for Caverion’s services and solutions
Due to the effects of the outbreak of the global coronavirus pandemic, the previous market outlook given on 7 February 2020 is no longer valid. The effects of the coronavirus crisis will impact Caverion’s market outlook for 2020 in many ways.
A large part of Caverion’s services is vital in keeping critical services and infrastructure up-and-running. This includes ensuring the continued functioning of real estate premises, energy and transportation infrastructure, health facilities, pharmaceutical and food industries, food retail and logistics as well as facilities and services used by public authorities. An important share of these services needs to be performed even under lockdown measures imposed to help fight the coronavirus pandemic. The governmental stimulus packages are expected to increase investments in infrastructure and hospital projects in Caverion’s operating area. Also the ramp-up investments in Pharma segment capacity as well as the manufacturing of protective equipment may increase the need for clean room capabilties.
Nevertheless, any restrictive measures such as limiting industrial operations and shutdowns or temporary close-downs of premises or construction sites may also have an impact on Caverion’s business. However, it is very difficult to judge if the effects are of a short-term nature, or if they will have a more long-term impact.
The global corona crisis is expected to result in a global downturn. While the megatrends and the need for Caverion’s offering may even be strengthened by the crisis going forward, a global downturn will negatively impact the level of demand also for Caverion’s offering. Most likely the demand for new construction projects will decrease, but there may also be an impact for smaller ad-hoc services and projects.
On the other hand, the corona crisis may also promote additional demand and new opportunities for some of Caverion’s solutions going forward. Remotely controlled buildings are helping customers to save time and money, but also enable to operate the buildings more safely. Special requirements may currently also apply to ventilation and air-conditioning systems, increasing the demand for ventilation related upgrades based on new guidelines and requirements.
Despite the coronavirus and its economic effects, the overall megatrends in the industry, such as the increase of technology in built environments, energy efficiency requirements, increasing digitalisation and automation as well as urbanisation remain strong and are still expected to promote demand for Caverion’s services and solutions over the coming years. Especially the sustainability trend is expected to continue strong going forward. The increasing awareness of sustainability is supported by both EU-driven regulations and national legislation setting targets and actions for energy efficiency and carbon-neutrality.
Over the short term, the corona crisis and the economic slowdown are expected to negatively impact the demand environment in Services in all of Caverion’s divisions, especially in ad-hoc services. Caverion’s Services business is by nature more stable and resilient through the business cycles than the Projects business. As technology in buildings increases, the need for new services and digital solutions is expected to increase. Customer focus on core operations continues to open up outsourcing and maintenance as well as technical building management opportunities for Caverion. The corona pandemic may even increase the amount of outsourcings going forward. In some cases, the demand for smaller ad-hoc work in empty buildings may also increase. There is a continued interest for services supporting sustainability, such as energy management. In Cooling, there is a technical change ongoing from F-gases into CO2-based refrigeration, providing increased need for upgrades and modernisations.
Over the short term, the corona crisis and the economic slowdown are expected to negatively impact the demand environment in Projects in all of Caverion’s divisions. There will be somewhat more of work force absent as well as more work site delays and closures. So far there has only been a limited amount of work site closures in Caverion’s Projects business. The current circumstances also allow doing repairs and many types of installation projects for empty properties and sites. The requirements for increased energy efficiency, better indoor climate and tightening environmental legislation continue to drive demand over the coming years.